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Repetition of truths (January 28, 2017)

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‘Truths need to be repeated many times so that they don’t lapse into oblivion”

-José Saramago, Nobel Prize winning novelist and journalist.

 

Over the last 12 weeks, newspapers, television media and brokerage reports have been breathless in reporting the adverse impacts of demonetisation.  Nearly every brokerage cut earnings estimates.   However, the Indexes have crossed the levels they were before demonetisation was announced.   Even companies that supposedly should have been severely impacted by demonetisation (e.g. TITAN in Jewellery) have crossed their price levels as of the day of demonetisation.

 

Certain truths, which we have written about earlier, deserve repetition

  1. Bad news sells.  The financial media’s interest is in Advertising revenue through more eye balls.  Their mission is not to look after your retirement nest egg.
  2. Forecasting short term movements is a mug’s game.  We do not have wisdom to comprehend what makes sentiment change on a dime.  Those who claim to do so seldom publish their track record.
  3. Every time an uncertainty is confronted, we feel fear. However, what many people overlook is that we have always lived amidst uncertainty.  The present always feels more uncertain than the past.
  4. Markets undergo a pull-back regularly.  The ability to bear this pain is an inescapable part of the wealth creation journey.
  5. It is critical to define what will be your guiding principles and then shut out the noise.  Understanding the behaviour of other market participants creates a significant behavioural advantage.

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